The Pragmatic Capitalist

Paul Tudor Jones appears to have shifted from the bear market rally camp to the bull market camp.  As of our last update he was firmly in the position that the market had rallied too much and was due for a downturn.   Late last summer Tudor Jones stated his desire not to chase the 45% rally in stocks and rather, buy into an autumn downturn in anticipation for a year end rally:

While 45% is nothing to ignore, one should take into account that the S&P through July 31 is still down more than 20% on a price basis year-over-year. The bottom line is that we are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Rather, we eye a better opportunity to be long equities into year-end on a potential autumnal pullback.

He has changed his tune a bit now and believes the economy has the potential to remain quite robust into Q2 of 2010 as Fed policy remains accommodative, the dollar remains weak and inventory de-stocking continues:

The forceful policy response to avert depression tail risks posed by the financial crisis has likely unleashed a wave of liquidity which is probably greater than that of 2001-2003.  Our job is to identify the best performing assets of this “Great Liquidity Race.”  At present, it appears those assets are gold, emerging market equities denominated in local currencies, and commodity related stocks.

Liquidity is making its way into bond purchases by banks, into equity markets, into capital flows to emerging markets and into international reserve accumulation and related diversification away from the dollar.  This will be the trend over the next quarter—or two—even before discussing potential portfolio shifts within it.

Due to this easy money approach he is becoming heavily invested in gold and other precious metals as he expects metals to win the “great liquidity race”:

“precious metals exposure has been increasing and is currently the largest commodity exposure.  As a result we have included, for this quarter, a separate discussion on gold as an appendix.  I have never been a gold bug.  It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place.  And now is that time.”

In the bond market he likes Curve Flatteners as inflation is likely to pick-up in the coming quarters.  Although Julian Robertson does not have the same gold outlook he does like the same bond trade.

“Curve flatteners also provide tail risk insurance against long gold, short dollar and long equity positions and, as such, marry well with other market views presented here.”

In terms of currencies he sees the dollar falling further on the back of the Fed’s easy monetary approach.  He likes the Brazilian Real and the Australian Dollar.  He also likes the Korean Won and Yuan, but believes their appreciation against the dollar will be slower.  He does not find the Euro intriguing.

He continues to like equities into year-end.  Let’s just hope he didn’t just buy at the top:

“the stage should be set for another run of meaningful size into year-end.   Ensuing developments lead us to think that run could continue well into the first quarter of next year.

As for our regional preferences, we continue to favor emerging markets in general, and countries like Brazil and Taiwan, in particular.”

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The long term view of Gold shows that as $4 dollars is to corn, and $40 dollars is to gold, the chart above suggests that the $700 dollar area is most probably the PIVOT point for gold.  We can see that although 1980 did have a spike to $875, the chart reveals that 700 (or just slightly above it) was where the price rise was really contained.  The 2006 high was also at 700 and spent almost a year and a half bouncing off that area before it blasted thru to 1000.  Finally, the subsequent 2008 meltdown low was right at the $700 dollar area.  We think the weight of the evidence suggests that $700 is indeed the new pivot.

From this chart we can see that gold’s price has been trading in its second channel from the top and like crude’s drop below its channel to its $40 dollar pivot point, gold’s drop during the same meltdown pierced its channel and dropped all the way to $700, its pivot point.  The subsequent bounce back into its channel for the past 12 months is now reaching the upper boundary of its channel line.  That line is pointing to the 1100 dollar area in the October/November time frame.  Like Crude, Gold is also due for a seasonal pullback at this time of the year.  Therefore we should be cautious when gold reaches the 1100-1150 area should that price level be realized over the next 2-4 weeks.

Now with that said, the question arises as to whether gold could break above that channel line.  Usually channel lines, when broken, are the result of price having tested and bounced off it for a period of time.  In this case, while there have been no price hits on this channel, we see that the highs of 2008 were very close to touching that line.  And the latest bar on the chart is also very close to touching that channel.

Sometimes there are price spikes that develop at these price points.  The 1980 high is one example.  But more to the point, 1983 and 2006 witnessed spikes above the red channel line.   The potential for gold to do the same on this current rally is a strong possibility as well.  The most incredible thing about gold is that it is the only well known commodity to be making NEW HIGHS since the meltdown.

It is an amazing thing that less than 2% of the population own form of gold.  In fact, Doug Casey’s work shows that there is only about 1 ounce of the metal available for each person on earth.

That leads to the next question, how much paper money is there on earth?  At last look in 2008, it was estimated that there would be about $3000 per person on earth should it be divided up equally.  Now there are a lot more complex ways to arrive at what price of gold should be, but even in this simple method it shows that equally speaking, the price of gold should be at least $3000 per ounce.

Special Wells Fargo Report on Gold

What is Gold Telling Us

We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. I pointed this out last week mentioning that gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. This is what we want to see. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven.

These three charts of GLD, SLV and GDX show Wednesday’s price action as gold and silver moved higher while precious metal stocks sold down with the rest of the market. This is generally a bearish indicator for gold and silver but because I am starting to see this happen more often and traders are ready for the market to top any day, I am seeing this as a bullish indicator. If the market starts to slide I have a feeling investors will be dumping a lot more money into gold and silver.

To receive my free trading reports, please visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris

Lawrence Delevingne and Vincent Fernando of Business Insider

Gold may be the hottest investment in the world right now.

This yellow metal now commands more than $1,000 per ounce, and many folks are making wild predictions about how far it can run.

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By Nico Isaac

When prices in a financial market go from Sea Level to Outer Space in a relatively brief time, two scenarios are at work — and they both start with the letters “B-U.”

When a precious metal goes from being a popular long-term investment of buy-and-holders to the quick, get-away “vehicle” of day-traders, two scenarios are at work — and they both start with letters “B-U.”

And when the majority of mainstream pundits see a “new paradigm” in which prices continue to rise indefinitely, two scenarios are at work – and, you guessed it, they both start with the letters “B-U.”

Enter: the recent Gold Rush of 2009, when ALL of the above conditions apply. Everyone from hedge funds to housewives now hustle to hitch their asset wagon to the rising gold star. Which begs this question: Which of the possible two scenarios are at work: B-U-ll
— Or B-U-bble?

Here’s the difference: A genuine bull market is driven by a self-sustaining internal dynamic that’s reflected by a host of technical indicators. A Bubble, on the other hand, is the result of untenable psychology that could shift at any moment and bring prices plummeting down.

For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

It goes without saying into which category the mainstream experts put Gold: namely, a new bull market that has years, if not decades more to soar. “Gold Will Hit $2,000 an ounce,” reads an October 8 Market Watch. And — “Gold Has More Upside… The metal’s bull run is just getting started,” adds a same day Barron’s.

I found hundreds of news items which agree about the long-term potential for gold’s uptrend. But not a single one could tell me why the rally would continue, other than because the experts say so.
To know whether a diamond is real, it must cut glass. And, to know whether the bull market in gold is real, it must encompass at least one of these FOUR traits:

1. A surge in demand that outpaces supply
2. A falling stock market, which raises the “safe haven” appeal of precious metals.
3. A real (not imagined) threat of inflation
4. An increase in value relative to major foreign currencies

Right now, the Gold market can NOT check off a single one of these items. Case in point:

Supply: Demand for gold from jewelry makers – which comprises 60%-70% of the market – has plummeted to its lowest level in 20 years.

“Safe haven” appeal: From its March 2009 bottom, the U.S. stock market has soared 50% right alongside rallying gold prices.

Inflation: As the October 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) notes: An increase in money supply is only inflationary if it is used to RAISE the total amount of credit. This is NOT happening, as both bank credit and consumer credit levels are contracting for the first time since World War II.

A gold rally in other currencies: Again, the October 2009 EWFF presents the following close-up of Spot Gold prices VERSUS Gold denominated in foreign currencies such as the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the euro, franc, pound, and yen since 2007.

The major non-confirmation between these two markets is clear, as is the overlying message: IF demand for gold truly outweighed supply, then its value as measured in other currencies would increase.

The rise in gold is primarily the result of speculation and a falling U.S. dollar. These are exactly the “untenable” forces that contribute to a Bubble, not a genuine Bull market. The difference is only a matter of time.
For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

Gold stocks have performed well in the recent couple weeks. I figure we will see some sideways price action before another leg higher. The question is how far will this pullback go?

As you can see there are two trend lines which make for solid support levels. I will be looking for a low risk setup around those levels.

Precious Metal GLD Gold Fund
Gold had a great pop higher the first week of October but now it looks ready for some sideways chop. I tend to look at precious metal stocks as a leading indicator for trading gold so before we put more money to work in GLD I want a buy signal for gold stocks also.

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Chris Vermeulen

Vincent Fernando of Business Insider

Inflation protected treasury securities are priced as if gold prices have over-reacted to dollar fears.

The bond market’s current expected U.S. 10-year inflation rate is only 1.99% based on the recent Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) yield of 1.42% vs. the standard U.S. 10-year Treasury of 3.41%.

The chart below from Carpe Diem shows historical inflation expectations by this measure. Note the latest value, 1.75%, is slightly dated.

Despite a recent increase in inflation expectations from the bond market, 1.99% is still a far cry from what many gold bulls are expecting.

Thus if one disagrees with the bond market’s expectations, then shorting it might be a better bet than gold. This is because with gold, the market price has already run up substantially on dollar-weakness and inflation expectations (plus other reasons as well) thus any new gold purchase is chasing a rally to some extent, even if gold has further to run.

With treasuries on the other hand, the market hasn’t yet moved substantially on any such expectations. Thus a short position isn’t late to the game, in fact it is ahead of what the market currently expects. This likely makes risk-reward stronger than gold here for a similar weak-dollar view.

Yet there’s one important caveat - the bond market could end up right, which would likely be bad news for gold or any short position against treasuries.