Gold ETF Trading – GLD

The Gold ETF is one of my favorite trading vehicles. Using simple
trend lines and looking at the recent price action you can see that the
price of gold is looking ready for a pullback. Buying at this level is
chasing and that generally means you buy at the high and panic out at
the low.

How to Trade Gold GLD

How to Trade Gold GLD

Silver ETF Trading – SLV

The Silver ETF looks to be in the same boat as gold. I expect to see some sideways price action or a pullback.

How to Trade Silver SLV ETF

How to Trade Silver SLV ETF

If you would like to receive my free weekly trading analysis please visit my trading websites:
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com


Financial Coup D’Etat and the Reaction of Gold

MISH

US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) is talking to Bill Moyers about the state of the economy. She claims it’s a “Financial Coup D’Etat

It’s a lengthy interview, about 20 minutes, but well worth a listen in entirety. The site has a complete transcript for those with limited time. Here is a partial transcript.

MICHAEL MOORE: We’re here to get the money back for the American People. Do you think it’s too harsh to call what has happened here a coup d’état? A financial coup d’état?

MARCY KAPTUR: That’s, no. Because I think that’s what’s happened. Um, a financial coup d’état?

BILL MOYERS: That’s the progressive Representative from Ohio, Marcy Kaptur, she’s with me now. She has a Masters from the University of Michigan, did graduate study at M.I.T. and still lives in the same house in the Toledo working class neighborhood where she grew up.

She’s in her 14th term in Congress, the longest-serving Democratic woman in the history of the House, and she’s an outspoken financial watchdog on three important Committees: Appropriations, Budget and Oversight and Government Reform.

Also with me is a familiar face to viewers of this broadcast. Simon Johnson is the former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. He now teaches Global Economics and Management at M.I.T.’s Sloan School of Management. He’s one of the founders of the website Baselinescenario.com. I check it out daily for Simon’s take on the economic and financial crisis.

It’s been a year since the great collapse and both my guests are well equipped to assess what’s happened since then. Welcome to you both.

MARCY KAPTUR: Thank you.

BILL MOYERS: Let’s look at this story that I just read from the Associated Press this week about how Treasury Secretary Geithner is on the phone several times a day with a select group of very powerful Wall Street bankers, especially Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs. He will talk to them when Members of Congress have to leave a message on the answering machine. And these are the bankers who helped bring on this calamity and who are now benefiting from it. What does that say to you? ….

A Huge Shift In Attitudes

Others have posted the link already but I wanted to get in a few comments.

At left: Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur with Simon Johnson, the former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The interview with Bill Moyers is an early sign that people are shifting their attitudes significantly. Kaptur does not look like or sound like some radical nutcase, yet she presents a compelling case of a Financial Coup D’Etat.

Two years ago people would have laughed at the idea. Not today.

This type of sentiment is a good portion of what is powering (and going to power in the future) the gold bull market this time around. There is not so much fear of inflation or deflation, rather there is a growing loss of faith in the financial system and government itself, not just in the US but a loss of faith in governments worldwide. The US just happens to be leading the way at the moment.

Another clear sign of mistrust is the overwhelming support for Ron Paul’s Audit The Fed Legislation, now with 301 co-sponsors per RonPaul.Com. Once again, a few years ago, people thought Paul’s idea was loony.

What Did We Get For The Trillions Of Dollars Spent?

Sadly, for all the 14 Trillion expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet, the $1+ trillion in various stimulus programs, and monetary printing to the tune of $1 trillion as well, the economy has nothing to show for it other than a stock market rally.

The wealthy have been bailed out, while the middle class and poor are stuck without a job in underwater mortgages, hoping for scraps of mortgage payment reductions when many would be better off walking away. Meanwhile boomers are headed into retirement, underfunded and scared half to death.

I have been exchanging emails with John Mauldin on the growing list of problems as well as possible solutions (Please see Thoughts on the Economy: Problems and Solutions).

This week, John will have another Thoughts From The Frontline on the unsustainable path we are on. Be sure to look for it. The title will surprise long-time Mauldin readers.

Did Gold Bulls Hop Off The Train?

Gold is up again making new highs.

Interestingly, there has been little fanfare on this move. When gold broke 1000 in 2007, talk was “next stop 2000, then 5000″. Sentiment was so extreme I was sure the next move was down.

I am hearing very little of that type of sentiment now. Did the gold bulls hop off the train? That’s what it seems like. If so, this move could have a lot more left in it, regardless of what the dollar does.


Spot Gold

39197167_gold

By: Adrian Ash, BullionVault

London Gold Market Report

SPOT GOLD slipped from a new record high of $1070.50 an ounce on Wednesday morning in London, easing back 0.8% as world stock markets jumped and crude oil shot to a 12-month high above $75 per barrel.

Both US Dollars and Japanese Yen – last autumn’s “safe haven” currencies amid the global banking collapse – were sold lower on the forex market.

World No.1 chipmaker Intel reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profits.

British government gilt prices fell at the fastest pace in three months following news that UK unemployment – now at a fresh 12-year record – rose less quickly than analysts forecast over the summer.

“We have yet to see any formation that suggests this up move [in gold] is about to end,” says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta.

“Our measured move target remains $1106 with trailing stop-loss now raised to $1036 on a close basis.”

“If you’re a believer in cycles, we’re still only halfway to the all-time high for gold prices,” said David Garofalo, CFO of Canada’s Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd, in an interview yesterday.

“The real high was $850 back in 1980, which would be about $2,300 in today’s Dollars.”

Former Newmont Australia director John Dow, now chairman of Troy Resources, told reports today he expects the gold price to trade between $1100 and $1650 an ounce from here to year-end.

“Investors fear how much damage the US Dollar will suffer and this is in our opinion lifting gold,” J.P.Morgan analysts told clients yesterday, raising their view of world No.1 miner Barrick Gold.

Continue Reading


Gold hits record high close to $1,064

LONDON (AFP) – The price of gold forged a record high close to 1,064 dollars an ounce here on Tuesday as the dollar sank against the euro.

In morning trade on the London Bullion Market, gold struck 1,063.95 dollars an ounce, the highest level ever recorded.

Gold’s latest pinnacle was recorded as the European single currency climbed above 1.48 dollars in foreign exchange trade on Tuesday morning.

A struggling greenback makes the precious metal cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby boosting demand, analysts said.

Gold, used in jewellery, dentistry and electronics, has struck a series of all-time highs in recent weeks owing to the weak dollar.


MarketClub Offers Free Email Course

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Morning Reads

* “Gold prices continued its northward journey as the investors in the international markets are shifting their funds into gold due to depreciation of the dollar against all leading currencies of the world. Market pundits feel that prices of the yellow metal is expected to remain firm,” reports IndiaTimes.

* So far gold prices have gained 6% in October, touching fresh nominal highs almost daily. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar index has slid to 14-month lows. Last Friday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked the dollar up slightly saying the Fed “will be ready to tighten monetary policy as a recovery takes hold.” Economists don’t expect the Fed to lift rates until well into 2010.

* Dollar facing ‘power-shift’: “The US dollar is being hurt by the continued talk of a shift away from a dollar-centric world. As long as the US economy is not strong enough for any rise in interest rates to be conceivable for a long time, the dollar’s underlying downtrend will remain in place” said Kit Juckes, an analyst at currency traders ECU Group,” reports AFP.


Why the Feds Seized the Gold in 1933

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Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The question of confiscation reappears every time gold rallies, from those with enough history to be able to throw out a few facts and sound plausible, but not enough grounding in history and the law to actually place them in any sort of reasonable context.

Below is a ‘reprise’ of a blog entry we posted early this year on the topic.

The Feds acted on gold because at the time it WAS the currency of the country, and the government had some proper claims on it. When the US left the gold standard it relinquished all such claims, as gold became purely private property. Except perhaps if you are holding gold American eagles, which bear the patina of ‘currency.’

It should also be noted that the sole action of the government was to ask for the gold, to withdraw convertibility of gold notes from the domestic public, and to monitor the activity of safe deposit boxes taking certain categories of gold, and essentially nothing else. There were no investigations, searches, or even active prosecutions for non-compliance.

The purpose of the confiscation was to prepare the way for a formal devaluation of the dollar while it was still on the gold standard.

Could the government try to confiscate the gold from private citizens again? Certainly. Although unless it is part of a return to the gold standard with adequate recompense, it would be little more than the theft of private property.

The government can also ask you to place an RFID chip in your head before you can buy anything or drive a car, ask for your children and place them in youth camps, bind you over to your creditors in indentured servitude, ask you to house homeland security troops in your home with no payment, and request your presence on a freight train for relocation to New Mexico.

There is a wide difference between what *could* be done, what is likely to be done, and what people might consider to be unreasonable enough to resist.

Talk of confiscation invariably occurs when gold rallies because it is a way for those who rode the rally to climb the wall of worry and those who missed the rally to feel better about their lost opportunity.

The Last Time the Feds Devalued the Dollar to Save the Banks
14 January 2009

We dipped once again into the Federal Reserve Bulletin Publication from June, 1934 to take a closer look at the growth of the monetary base, and found an interesting graphic that shows the accounting for the January 1934 devaluation of the dollar and the subsequent result on Bank Reserves in the Federal Reserve System.

As you will recall, the Gold Act, or more properly Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933, required Americans to surrender their gold coinage and certificates to the Federal Reserve Banks by May 1, 1933. There were no prosecutions for non-compliance except one benchmark case which was brought voluntarily by a person who wished to challenge the act in court.

After a substantial portion of the gold was turned in by US citizens and taken from their bank based safe deposit boxes, the government officially devalued the dollar from 20.67 to 35.00 per ounce in the Gold Reserve Act of January 31, 1934.

The proceeds from this devaluation were used to provide a significant boost to the Federal Reserve member bank positions as shown in the first chart below.

The inflation visited on the American people because of this action helped to take the CPI as it was then measured up 1200 basis points from about -8% to +4% by the end of 1933. To somewhat offset the monetary inflation the Fed also contracted the Monetary Base which served the nascent recovery in the real economy rather poorly and is viewed widely as one of a series of policy errors.

Considering that the actions did little for the employment situation this was painful medicine indeed to those who were dependent on wages.

reserve bank credit and related items

Fortunately at the same time FDR was initiating the New Deal programs which, despite continual opposition from a Republican minority in Congress, managed to provide a small measure of relief for the 20+% public that was suffering from unemployment and wage stagnation.

People ask frequently “Will the government seize gold again?”

While there is no certainty involved in anything if a government begins to overturn the law and seize private property, one has to ask for the context and details first to understand what happened and why, to understand the precedent.

Technically, the government did not engage in a pure seize of private property, since at that time the US was on the gold standard, and much of the gold holdings of US citizens were in the form of gold coinage and certificates.

Governments always make the case that the currency is their property and that the user is merely holding it as a medium of exchange. The foundation of the argument was that the government required to recall its gold to strengthen the backing of the US dollar against the net outflows of gold for international trade. The devaluation helped with this as well, since dollars brought less gold for trade balances.

People also ask, “Why didn’t the government just revalue the dollar without trying to recall all the gold from the American public?”

The answer would seem to be that this would have been more just, more equitable recompense for the public. The Treasury could have purchased gold from the public to support its foreign trade needs.

But it would have left much less liquidity for the banks.

One can make a better case that the recall of the gold, with the subsequent revaluation to benefit a small segment of the population in the Banks, was a form of seizure of wealth without due compensation. Hence the lack of active prosecutions.

So, will the government take back gold again to save the banks by devaluing the dollar?

Highly unlikely, because they not only do not need to this, since the dollar is no longer backed by gold, and is a form of secular property except perhaps for gold eagles, but they do not have to, because they are devaluing the dollar already to save the banks.

This time the confiscation of wealth to save the banks is called TARP.

If one thinks about it, US Dollars are being created and provided directly to the banks to boost their free reserves significantly, at a scale comparable and beyond to 1933-34.

The confiscation of wealth is being spread among all holders of US dollars and dollar assets, foreign and domestic, in the more subtle form of monetary inflation.

Granted, the government must be more opaque to mask their actions in order to sustain confidence in the dollar while the devaluation occurs, but this is exactly what is happening, and all that is required to happen in a fiat regime.

There is no need to seize widely held exogenous commodities like gold and oil, but merely dampen any bellwether signals that a significant devaluation of the dollar is once gain being perpetrated on the American people in order to save the banks.

Its fascinating to look carefully at this next chart below.

Monetary gold in the US

First, notice the big drop in gold in circulation of 9.8 million ounces, or roughly 36% of the measured inventory at the end of 1932. Think someone was front-running the dollar devaluation? We suspect that the order went out to start pulling in the gold stock to the banks.

The reduction in gold in circulation AFTER the announcement of the Gold Act in April would be about 3.9 million ounces, or roughly 22% of the gold remaining in circulation in March 1933.

Considering that all gold coinage held by banks in the vaults was automatically seized, the voluntary compliance rate is not all that impressive. We are not sure how much of this was being held in overseas hands by non-US entities.

But beyond a doubt, there was a unjust, if not illegal, seizure of wealth by requiring citizen to turn in their gold to the banks, which was then revalued at the beginning of 1934 by 69% from 20.67 to 35 dollars.

It would have been much more equitable to devalue the dollar and to change the basis for dollar/gold first, before requiring private citizens to surrender their holdings. But of course, this would have lessened the liquidity available for direct infusion into the Federal Reserve banks.

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December gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday

December gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week’s rally. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered early session losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If December extends this week’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20- day moving average crossing at 1014.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday’s high crossing at 1062.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1021.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1014.40.


Peter Schiff Sees Gold At $5,000

Zero Hedge
The congressional candidate is the latest to chime in on perspectives of where gold is going. This ties in with our expectations that the Fed’s generous excess liquidity, coupled with a declining dollar, will likely see gold as the primary focus on new capital flows. If gold does really hit $5,000 expect a military coup by the various governors of the Fed.

As to Schiff’s contention that a plunge in the dollar will be accompanied by Chinese dumping of Treasuries, we are not so sure it is that simple. Bernanke is well aware of the game of poker (where courtesy of the reserve currency he can raise into infinity, even on blind), and this is the only bluff he would be unable to respond to. Which is why the tacit assumption that China will keep USTs in exchange for Geithner backing off from allegations of renminbi manipulation, seems very sensible.

Either way, if Peter Schiff ultimately does get elected into Congress, it will be amusing to watch the Grayson-Schiff financially astute tag team take on the rest of their underedcuated associates, and hopefully, the administration and its flawed economic policies.

h/t Shanky


Gold: Until the Banks Are Restrained and Balance Is Restored

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

Gold has apparently broken out of a big inverse Head and Shoulder formation, possibly an ascending triangle if you prefer that for reliability. In combination, as they often are, this is a powerful sign of buying pressure, accumulation and a sharp rise in price.

The targets we saw on the Gold Long Term chart posted here on September 15 call out a range of targets for this leg in the bull market from 1310 to 1350 level.

Here is a closer look at an updated chart showing the successful breakout from the Inverse H&S pattern. The target of 1310 now seems more confident for this leg of the gold bull market.

The formation will be in play as long as the ’secondary neckline’ is not violated on a weekly close.

It is always more difficult to move from the charts to a more fundamental macro analysis and ask, “What does this mean? What is the market telling us with these sharp moves higher in gold and silver?”

And of course there is the most common question of all, “How far can it go?”

This is where the controversy begins, because gold is stepping on the toes of those who misunderstand the existing forces of demand deflation and monetary inflation in the United States, who fundamentally do not understand money and wealth, and their differences.

It is also bothering the financial commentators and analysts who, in addition to mouthing the words and sentiments that other people provide for them, sometimes have a thought of their own and must wonder, “Is what I am saying true? And if it is, why is gold doing this? Should I be fearful of my position if the markets fail?”

We have tried to portray some potential causes for the sweeping move in gold. One must first remember that this is nothing new. Gold is in an obvious and sustained bull market, that has it roots when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan decided to print its way out of a series of crises beginning in the mid 1990’s, and started rising in earnest with the Fed’s monetary and regulatory errors in 2002.

Gold, despite the obvious efforts of the monied interests to disparage it publicly while accumulating it privately, is rising because the US dollar is being used badly, is being weakened by the failing schemes of a corrupt combination of the government and financial interests.

This is why there has been no serious reform, no meaningful investigations or indictments in what will surely be remembered in history as a financial fraud of a magnitude with the South Sea Bubble in England and the Mississippi Bubble in France.

There are going to be more crises, more dislocations associated with this, despite the best efforts of the financial engineers to paper it over, and the captive media to cover it up, dismiss it, and move along to the next asset bubble, this time in stocks.

This is what gold is telling us. It is saying that the era of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency is over, with all that this implies in the balance of power in the world as it has existed since the end of the Second World War. And it is occurring for some very good reasons which the US media and the Congress seem to prefer to ignore.

Gold is where people put their wealth when they are confronted with uncertainty, with asymmetric information, when they are afraid; when the statists and the crony capitalists are preying on the savings of the people. Gold is a refuge, a safe haven, when there is good reason to be concerned about your currency, your wealth, and your future; when lies are in the ascendancy and truth and justice are scarce commodities.

This is because gold is one of the few stores of value that is compact, universal, portable, and contingent upon the full faith and credit of nothing but itself.

And so the rally in gold will likely continue until the banks are restrained, the financial system is reformed, and balance is restored to the economy. When the media once again speaks freely and truthfully and openly, when justice is done and the guilty are judged, and when the people can more reasonably place their confidence in the words and actions of those who hold the stewardship of their nation under the Constitution which they have sworn to uphold.

Or, when the Constitution is tossed, and freedom is extinguished, because it is no longer convenient to a people given over to self-deception, egoism, greed, mere anarchy, and nothingness.

“In Egypt’s sandy silence, all alone,
Stands a gigantic leg, which far off throws
The only shadow that the Desert knows:
I am great Ozymandias, saith the stone,
The King of Kings; this mighty city shows
The wonders of my hand.
The City’s gone,
Nought but the leg remaining to disclose
The site of this forgotten Babylon.

We wonder, and some hunter may express
Wonder like ours, when thro’ the wilderness
Where London stood, holding the wolf in chase,
He meets some fragments huge, and stops to guess
What powerful but unrecorded race
Once dwelt in that annihilated place.”

Horace Smith, 1 February 1818


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